Download Book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Writen By Philip E. Tetlock

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

By : Philip E. Tetlock

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Book Synopsis :

NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER - NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."--Jason Zweig, The Wall Street JournalEveryone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The

Book Detail :

Author : Philip E. Tetlock

Pages : 352 pages

Publisher : Crown Publishing Group (NY)

Language :

ISBN-10 : 0804136718

ISBN-13 : 9780804136716

 
Supporting format: PDF, EPUB, Kindle, Audio, MOBI, HTML, RTF, TXT, etc.
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