Download PDF/Epub The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't Writen By Nate Silver

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't

By : Nate Silver

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Book Synopsis :

"Nate Silver's?The Signal and the Noise?is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." ?Rachel Maddow, author of?Drift Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair?s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger?all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election.?Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty

Book Detail :

Author : Nate Silver

Pages : 560 pages

Publisher : Penguin Books

Language :

ISBN-10 : 0143125087

ISBN-13 : 9780143125082

 
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